Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season/November
November Has begun, but aside from Krosa, WPac is quiet right now. However, there could be a few storms following up behind Krosa if the GFS forecast turns out to be correct. Ryan1000 00:24, November 1, 2013 (UTC) :The WPAC is going nuts. I will not be surprised if all those storms become typhoons. For November, I think the WPAC will produce 5''' tropical storms, '''5 severe tropical storms, 4''' typhoons, '''1 super typhoon, and an ACE of 51. AndrewTalk To Me 21:20, November 1, 2013 (UTC) ::My predictions: 3 tropical storms, 2 severe tropical storms, 2 typhoons, and 0 super typhoons. The WPac should quiet down a little from here on out. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC) 30W.NONAME 98W.INVEST Behind Krosa, we have a new invest. It has a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 11:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 30W (Wilma) And now this is 30W. This will probably become Tropical Storm Haiyan as it moves into the Philipines over the next day or two, causing some flooding rains. Hopefully it doesn't become the catastrophe Washi was in December 2011. Ryan1000 13:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : I'm not sure which one will become Haiyan first, 30W or 31W? The winner will get the name "Haiyan", while the loser gets the name "Podul". Anyway, I think this storm could bring lots of flooding to the Phillippines. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:41, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : This will do more effects in Vietnam than the Phillippines imo.Allanjeffs 21:02, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::Well, the Philippines should still accordingly plan for this system. As for this depression itself, the JMA has its intensity at 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg) and the JTWC has its intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). The JTWC predicts a break in our typhoon streak, taking the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 75 knots (85 mph). AndrewTalk To Me 22:03, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :::This isn't on the JMA for some reason. Anyway, PAGASA has named 30W Wilma. The latest JTWC update weakens 30W (Wilma) to 25 kts (1-min) and has it just inland Mindanao. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:08, November 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::Tropical Depression 30W will likely remain weak and break our typhoon streak. Both the JMA and the JTWC have the depression at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained winds), with a pressure estimate of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) per the JMA. Gusts are estimated to be at 40 knots (45 mph) per the JTWC. The JMA's tentative forecast brings the depression up to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/1000 mbar (hPa), whereas the JTWC is slightly more intense on the system. They: A.) forecast another Philippine landfall near Puerto Princesa, B.) take the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/75 knot (85 mph) gusts, C.) predict a Vietnam landfall north of Ho Chi Minh City, D.) emerge it into the Gulf of Thailand, E.) forecast a third landfall over extreme southwestern Thailand, and F.) bring it into the Bay of Benegal with 25 knot (30 mph) winds (1-minute sustained winds)/35 knot (40 mph) gusts. If Tropical Depression 30W can do all of that, I will be very surprised. AndrewTalk To Me 22:19, November 4, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah, the forecast track is very weird. I'll be extremely surprised if this depression could do all that. Anyway, I think we will see Podul from this, although it will probably be a weakling and break the crazy typhoon streak. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 03:11, November 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::This depression might not get as strong as before. The JMA has raised the system's pressure to 1006 mbar (hPa), and the JTWC has lowered their peak forecast to 55 knots (65 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph). Haiyan might significantly overshadow whatever Tropical Depression 30W does. AndrewTalk To Me 03:12, November 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::::This storm actually does have a chance of making it into the Bay of Bengal after making landfall in Southern Vietnam, but it'll have to hold itself intact (which won't hapen if it makes landfall as far north as they're expecting). Ryan1000 08:29, November 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::Well, Tropical Depression 30W has not gotten any stronger, and it might not get named at the rate its going. Even the JTWC kills it over southern Vietnam. AndrewTalk To Me 01:10, November 6, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Tropical Depression 30W And it dissipated. It did not even make it to the Vietnam. AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, November 7, 2013 (UTC) :JTWC briefly had this at minimal TS strength for a single advisory a while ago, so this may or may not have broken the JTWC major typhoon streak. Depends on whether or not you count storms that were never named by the JMA. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:18, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::Actually, this depression is still active as a remnant low. Today, it crossed into the NIO. More information can be found here. AndrewTalk To Me 22:17, November 8, 2013 (UTC) :::Now Tropical Depression 30W just regenerated into Depression BOB 05. AndrewTalk To Me 11:48, November 13, 2013 (UTC) ::::Tropical Depression 30W has made landfall over Tamil Nadu, India, and the system should be gone for good now. AndrewTalk To Me 18:55, November 16, 2013 (UTC) 32W.PODUL JMA Tropical Depression Do not expect Haiyan to be the end. We have another one coming! Per the JMA, a new tropical depression has formed. It has winds of 30 knots (35 mph, <55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) at the moment. Per the JTWC, due to vertical wind shear, the system, designated Invest 90W, has a low chance of becoming a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 12:32, November 9, 2013 (UTC) : Haiyan stole all the warm water for this one, I doubt it will do much. Ryan1000 15:59, November 9, 2013 (UTC) ::Per the JMA, the depression's pressure has fallen to 1000 mbar (hPa). Also, I would like to mention how close it the system is to the equator per the JTWC tropical weather outlook: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.0N 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. For comparison, Shanshan '13 (Crising), Sonamu '13 (Auring), and Bopha '12 (Pablo) reached latitudes of 4.2N, 3.2N, and 2.2N, respectively. This is the closest a tropical cyclone has formed to the equator since Agni in the NIO in 2004. AndrewTalk To Me 22:21, November 9, 2013 (UTC) :::Scratch what I said above. The JMA has the latitude of the depression at 1.3°N. Following a tropical cyclone (Haiyan) that possibly made the most intense tropical cyclone landfall on record, we now have a tropical depression that is challenging Vamei's title as the most Equitorial tropical cyclone on record (Vamei formed at 1.4°N). In addition, the depression is forecast to reach 35 knots (40 mph, 18 m/s) (10-minute sustained winds)/998 mbar (hPa). If the JMA's forecast pans out to be correct, Vamei will lose its crown as the closest tropical cyclone to form near the Equator. Also, I am having a little trouble determining whether or not this depression should on Wikipedia's List of Equatorial tropical cyclones list because the JTWC has not designated this systema tropical depression yet. I would appreciate your input here. AndrewTalk To Me 22:36, November 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::The JMA is the official RSMC for the WPac, so I don't see why not, as JTWC is unofficial. I still don't expect this to become very strong. Ryan1000 00:07, November 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::::The JTWC now gives the system a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone per their standards in 24 hours based on the marginally favorable environment ahead of it. AndrewTalk To Me 13:05, November 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::::I think we will see Podul from this, and it could be one of the most equatorial storms on record! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 22:08, November 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::The JTWC has issued a TCFA in anticipation of the system's development. It looks real organized on satellite imagery. AndrewTalk To Me 22:39, November 10, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Zoraida For only the third time since the new Philippine naming lists were instituted in 2001 (after Zigzag in '03 and Zosimo in '04), we have our PAGASA 'Z' storm! One more, and we will hit the auxiliary list for the first time on the new lists. Currently at 30 kts (10-min)/1000 mbar per the JMA. According to the Sun Star, Public Storm Signal Number 1 has been raised for Dinagat Island, Siargao Island, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:18, November 11, 2013 (UTC) :The Philippines do not need any more. Yolanda (Haiyan) devastated them enough, and Zoraida should not follow suit. On the other hand, if we get one more PAGASA-named tropical cyclone, we will use the auxiliary list for the first time since 1994! AndrewTalk To Me 01:45, November 11, 2013 (UTC) :::The GFS and Euro don't see much coming from this, just moving into Mindanao as a TD or TS then into Vietnam after that. Hopefully this is the last of them. Ryan1000 13:10, November 11, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Podul (Zoraida) ...and the typhoon train crashes to a halt. 35 kts (10-min)/1002 mbar per the JMA, and a measly 25 kts (1-min) per the JTWC. Probably too close to southern Vietnam to strengthen any further. I'm honestly shocked that we got Podul from this; last I checked, PAGASA had announced Zoraida's dissipation a couple days ago. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:45, November 14, 2013 (UTC) : I think they announced it leaving their area of responsibility, not necessarily dying out. But I'm surprised this depression managed to redeem itself when it looked like it was gonna fade away. Hopefully it's not too severe for Vietnam. Ryan1000 00:04, November 15, 2013 (UTC) ::Well, I never expected Podul to come. Our typhoon streak has finally ended. Hopefully, Vietnam does not get impacted too heavily. AndrewTalk To Me 00:28, November 15, 2013 (UTC) :::What?! We have Podul? The typhoon streak has finally ended, at last. Looks like Podul will have to be a weakling, and it should crash into Vietnam tonight or so. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:51, November 15, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Podul (Zoraida) A weakling that just tapped Vietnam breaks our longest typhoon streak in 12 years. AndrewTalk To Me 12:37, November 15, 2013 (UTC) At last we stop with this typhoon madness how many did we have ? anyways Podul seems to be the last storm or one of the last one,as the Wpac may produce one last surprise before its done.Allanjeffs 16:20, November 15, 2013 (UTC) :Allan, excluding tropical depressions, we had eight straight tropical storms (Fitow, Danas, Nari, Wipha, Francisco, Lekima, Krosa, and Haiyan) become "official" typhoons. This is the longest typhoon streak since 2001, which had nine successive typhoons. Also, all of the typhoons I listed above except Fitow became "major" typhoons per the JTWC (i.e. we got a streak of seven major typhoons!). I believe this could be a world record. And in regards to the end of the season, we have a long way to go. Accuweather predicts above average activity for December in the South China and Philippine Seas. AndrewTalk To Me 22:18, November 15, 2013 (UTC) ::God, when will the WPac ever stop? This was the 32nd '''storm of the season, and if the WPac continues with above-average activity during December, then this season might become among the most active on record. I expect 3-4 more storms will form until the very end of the year. —[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:30, November 16, 2013 (UTC) :::Steven, we have had '''31' official storms, not 32. And we are already the eighth most active WPac season on record in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To Me 00:47, November 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::Whoops, sorry. I thought we had 32 storms because of Podul's number being 32W. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:30, November 17, 2013 (UTC) Ay caramba, even this little weakling proved to be a bad storm. 31 deaths and $86 million in damage in southern Vietnam due to heavy flooding. All from a storm that was a tropical cyclone by JTWC's standards for only 12 hours. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:08, November 20, 2013 (UTC) 33W.NONAME Tropical Depression 33W Little fishy west of Guam.--Isaac829 21:38, December 3, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of 33W Fail.Isaac829 21:30, December 4, 2013 (UTC) The WPAC is finally calming down. AndrewTalk To Me 01:38, December 5, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, the WPac is finally calming down for the year. I think we will see Lingling before the year is over though. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 03:55, December 5, 2013 (UTC)